EU launches anti-subsidy investigation: targeting China's new energy vehicle exports

EU launches anti-subsidy investigation: targeting China's new energy vehicle exports

Recently, the European Commission announced the formal launch of a counter-subsidy investigation into China's new energy vehicle exports, a move that has attracted widespread attention from the global market. The investigation involves whether Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers have gained unfair competitive advantages through government subsidies, which may lead to the EU imposing tariffs on China's new energy vehicles. Here are the hot topics and structured data analysis around the event in the past 10 days.

1. Incident background and investigation reasons

European Commission President von der Leyen mentioned in his annual State of the Union address on September 13 that China's share of new energy vehicles in the European market has grown rapidly, rising from 3% in 2020 to 8% in 2023, and may exceed 15% in the next few years. The EU believes that Chinese automakers have lowered prices through government subsidies, posing a threat to local European companies.

2. The major enterprises involved and the market reactions

The survey mainly targets China's leading new energy vehicle brands, including BYD, NIO, Xiaopeng, etc. Data shows that in the first half of 2023, China's exports of new energy vehicles to the EU increased by 120% year-on-year, with BYD accounting for the highest proportion.

The EU Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) expressed support for the survey, believing that "fair competition is the basis for the healthy development of the market." The Ministry of Commerce of China responded that China's competitive advantages of new energy vehicles are due to technological innovation and industrial chain efficiency, rather than government subsidies.

3. Potential impact and industry forecasts

If the EU finally determines that there are improper subsidies for China's new energy vehicles, the following measures may be taken:

• An additional tariff of 10%-25% was imposed;
• Limit the sales quota of Chinese automakers in the EU;
• Chinese companies are required to provide more transparent cost data.

According to UBS Group's analysis, if the tariff exceeds 15%, China's price advantage of new energy vehicles in the EU will be greatly weakened, which may lead to a 20%-30% drop in exports in 2024.

4. Changes in the global new energy vehicle market structure

This survey not only affects China-EU trade, but may also reshape the global competitive landscape of new energy vehicles. Tesla CEO Musk recently said that tariff barriers may delay the global electrification process. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are actively attracting Chinese automakers to invest in building factories to avoid trade restrictions in Europe and the United States.

The following is a comparison of new energy vehicle sales in major global regions in 2023:

5. Summary and Outlook

The EU's anti-subsidy investigation may curb China's export of new energy vehicles in the short term, but in the long run, Chinese automakers may respond to challenges through overseas factory building and technical cooperation. This incident also reflects the fierce competition for new energy vehicles around the world, and the market structure will be more diversified in the future.

The Ministry of Commerce of China emphasized that it is willing to resolve differences with the EU through dialogue and jointly maintain the stability of the global industrial chain. Industry experts suggest that Chinese companies should accelerate their international layout and reduce their dependence on a single market.